Using standard statistical techniques on previous launch data, they determined that the evidence was overwhelming that launching at 31 ° F would lead to substantial risk of failure. In 1989, Siddhartha Dalal (this author’s father), Edward Fowlkes, and Bruce Hoadley wrote a paper (“ Risk Analysis of the Space Shuttle: Pre-Challenger Prediction of Failure”) analyzing the data available before launch to determine if the failure could have been better predicted before launch. Before and after shuttle explosion (first visible signs of danger on left, just after explosion on right). NASA’s own pre-launch estimates were that there was a 1 in 100,000 chance of shuttle failure for any given launch – and poor statistical reasoning was a key reason the launch went through. This had failed due to the low temperature (31 ° F / -0.5 ☌ ) at launch time – a risk that several engineers noted, but that NASA management dismissed.

The cause of the disaster was traced to an O-ring, a circular gasket that sealed the right rocket booster. Image: The Final Crew of the Space Shuttle Challenger via Wikipedia Millions of viewers (including many schoolchildren) watched the launch live partly because Christa McAuliffe, a social studies teacher who was to be the first civilian in space, was on board. (See a video of the tragic launch here) On January 28, 1986, the Space Shuttle Challenger exploded 73 seconds after liftoff, killing seven crew members and traumatizing a nation.

Nasa space shuttle